I was in the shower the other morning, channeling Leon Redbone doing Desert Blues, and thinking - a dangerous, even lethal, combination.  Not an alarmist by nature, Armageddon, Snowmageddon, Oilmageddon and such aren't usually what I worry about getting larger in the rear-view mirror.

But, a growing number of responsible commentators are beginning to speculate about future consequences of our overall economic position in the US.  (No, not just the weirdos in commercials hawking investment in gold.)  One line of musing anticipates a couple of somewhat related developments.  First is a continuing decline in the value of the dollar, which is painful enough already for anyone who travels.  Another is big-time inflation, thanks to, among other things, all the borrowed money that's been poured into the economy.  I'm not alone in these wonderings, according to The Ohio State University's Bernard J. (Bud) La Londe, Jr., Ph.D.

A third horseman riding toward apocalypse is a fairly rapid rise in interest rates.  On one hand, we'll likely need to do something to stem inflationary pressures.  On the other, we may need to make the dollar more attractive as an investment to domestic and international purchasers of US debt.  If lenders enjoy a higher rate of return, it surely follows that borrowers are going to be paying an even higher rate.

A fourth horseman might be continued high unemployment numbers, but we'll deal with those impacts at a later date.

The exceedingly bright commentator Charles Krauthammer has used the term "hyper-inflation," but I'm not ready to invoke the specter of Germany's Weimar Republic - yet.  But, we could see altered behaviors in business if inflation kicks in at a level not seen in some decades.  That is, a corporation with cash on hand might choose to invest the money in building inventory  - which would hold relative value - rather than watch the asset lose value when not put to some immediate use.  The flip side of the coin is that corporations without cash might be very reluctant to borrow in order to build inventory, and pay a premium for the privilege.

At that point, tightly integrated supply chain performance could be adversely affected if partners in business relationships take different approaches to the challenge.  If one supply chain partner builds a bloated inventory to use cash, but preserve value, while another slashes inventories (and elevates performance risk) to avoid the cost of borrowing, the disconnected day of reckoning will not be pretty.  And, the fabric of previously successful intimate business relationships could be strained beyond saving.